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Beijing has deployed its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.