Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Serious Barriers in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.